Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Workaholism and daily recovery: A day reconstruction study of leisure activities

This study among 85 individuals used a day reconstruction approach to examine whether workaholism moderates the relationship between daily activities during non‐work time and daily well‐being in the evening (evening happiness, momentary vigor before bedtime, and momentary recovery before bedtime). Specifically, it was hypothesized that daily work‐related activities during the evening have a stronger negative relationship with daily well‐being for employees high (versus low) in workaholism and that daily physical and social activities have a stronger positive relationship with well‐being for employees high (versus low) in workaholism. The results of multilevel analyses largely supported the hypotheses for daily physical and work‐related activities but not for social activities during non‐work time. These findings imply that organizations should not encourage their employees and particularly those who score high on workaholism to work during non‐work time and instead promote physical exercise. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

灾后重建土地利用规划环评重点内容解析与实证

在对四川汶川灾后重建土地利用规划环境影响评价区域与评价对象特征进行分析的基础上,对规划实施的主要资源环境制约因素进行了识别与分析,进而分析并确定了其评价要点;结合灾后重建土地规划环评实践工作,对评价重点内容与要点进行了初步应用。     

混沌理论在水质预测中的应用初探

基于混沌理论、相空间重构思想和嵌入理论分析涟水流域溶解氧的时间序列,计算吸引子维数和最大的Lyapunov指数,研究河流水质系统的复杂性特征。结果表明,河流水质时间序列具有混沌特性,其外在表现为貌似随机的无规则特点;但系统本身内在的、固有的规律(表现在最大的Lyapunov指数),表明短期预测河流水质变化是可行的,并应用混沌相空间模线性回归模型进行了短期预测,其预测结果对涟水流域的水质管理和控制具有一定的参考价值。     

Computational modeling and analysis of thoracolumbar spine fractures in frontal crash reconstruction

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to reconstruct 11 motor vehicle crashes (6 with thoracolumbar fractures and 5 without thoracolumbar fractures) and analyze the fracture mechanism, fracture predictors, and associated parameters affecting thoracolumbar spine response.

Methods: Eleven frontal crashes were reconstructed with a finite element simplified vehicle model (SVM). The SVM was tuned to each case vehicle and the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) Ver. 4.01 was scaled and positioned in a baseline configuration to mimic the documented precrash driver posture. The event data recorder crash pulse was applied as a boundary condition. For the 6 thoracolumbar fracture cases, 120 simulations to quantify uncertainty and response variation were performed using a Latin hypercube design of experiments (DOE) to vary seat track position, seatback angle, steering column angle, steering column position, and D-ring height. Vertebral loads and bending moments were analyzed, and lumbar spine indices (unadjusted and age-adjusted) were developed to quantify the combined loading effect. Maximum principal strain and stress data were collected in the vertebral cortical and trabecular bone. DOE data were fit to regression models to examine occupant positioning and thoracolumbar response correlations.

Results: Of the 11 cases, both the vertebral compression force and bending moment progressively increased from superior to inferior vertebrae. Two thoracic spine fracture cases had higher average compression force and bending moment across all thoracic vertebral levels, compared to 9 cases without thoracic spine fractures (force: 1,200.6 vs. 640.8 N; moment: 13.7 vs. 9.2?Nm). Though there was no apparent difference in bending moment at the L1–L2 vertebrae, lumbar fracture cases exhibited higher vertebral bending moments in L3–L4 (fracture/nonfracture: 45.7 vs. 33.8?Nm). The unadjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 9 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.6). The age-adjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 10 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.8). The age-adjusted principal stress in the trabecular bone was an excellent indicator of fracture occurrence (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?1.0). A rearward seat track position and reclined seatback increased the thoracic spine bending moment by 111–329%. A more reclined seatback increased the lumbar force and bending moment by 16–165% and 67–172%, respectively.

Conclusions: This study provided a computational framework for assessing thoracolumbar fractures and also quantified the effect of precrash driver posture on thoracolumbar response. Results aid in the evaluation of motor vehicle crash–induced vertebral fractures and the understanding of factors contributing to fracture risk.     

后重建时代汶川大地震极重灾区旅游发展策略探析

2008年汶川大地震给四川省旅游业发展在短期内造成了极大困难,但也给当地遗留了大量的地震遗存,拥有重要的科学考查、科普教育和纪念价值。后重建时代极重灾区面临的旅游发展问题大同小异,虽然开发了许多新项目,但问题并没有从根本上解决。从当地自然环境禀赋各异、少数民族文化开发程度低、旅游商品外来化严重、旅游安全等方面分析了面临的各种问题,提出了具有针对性的对策和建议。     

适宜性评价视角下的煤矿土地复垦技术措施研究——以白山市道清沟煤矿为例

基于土地适宜性评价方法，着重选取极限值条件法、AHP层次分析法、加权指数和法对白山市道清沟煤矿区的土地适宜类和土地质量等进行系统综合的分析，判定道清沟煤矿待复垦土地的类型、数量和质量。基于土地破坏现状和适宜性评价结果，提出以工程措施为主、生物化学措施为辅助的土地生态重构对策。     

青南地区城镇污水处理厂综合效率评估分析

青南地区地处青藏高原腹地,是我国多条大江大河发源地,该地区污水处理对下游江河水环境质量改善具有重要意义.对青南地区(玉树、果洛和黄南)污水处理厂的综合效率进行定量评估分析并指出制约其效率提升的因素,对推动该地区污水处理产业的后续发展具有重要意义.因此,本文以青南地区11座城镇污水处理厂为研究对象,利用层次分析法和模糊综合分析法构建的模糊层次分析模型,从技术性能、经济性能、运行管理三个层面选取指标对模型进行量化,评估青南地区各污水处理厂的综合效率.结果表明:污水处理厂的综合得分在80分以上的只有1座,50—80分的有4座,50分以下的有6座,平均得分只有50.88分,表明该区域污水处理厂综合运行效率并不理想.通过实地调研,结合分析各污水处理厂表现较差的指标,发现该地区雨水收集率较低、低温冻裂管网等问题是导致污水处理效率偏低的主要原因.同时,未进行完备的污水处理设施建设与未完成提标改造是导致污水处理厂整体运行效果差等问题的重要原因.因此各污水处理厂应进一步加强设施建设,采取改进措施提高污水处理效率,防止管网等设备破裂导致污水污染环境,节约药费、电耗、人工费等运行费用,进一步提高青南地区污水处理厂的技术性能、运行管理和经济效益.     

两种应用场景下NDVI时间序列数据拟合方法研究

植被覆盖指数（NDVI）时间序列数据集包含地表植被的长势、生长周期、时空变化等信息,其拟合重建结果可应用于物候信息提取、生态质量评价、人类活动扰动识别、覆被变化动态监测等方面。基于TIMESAT软件,选取物候参数提取和扰动识别2个应用场景,结合地面站点数据和Jacknife法模拟数据,对比分析非对称高斯函数拟合法（AG法）、双Logistic函数拟合法（D-L法）和Savitzky-Golay滤波法（S-G法）3种方法的拟合效果。结果表明：（1）3种方法拟合重建后提取的生长开始时间（SOS）、生长结束时间（EOS）、生长周期（LOS）等物候参数接近站点数据,AG法和D-L法保持NDVI时序曲线整体变化特征的能力较强,提取的SOS和EOS更接近站点数据;（2）人类活动扰动识别应用场景中,S-G法在滤波时能够最大限度地保留时序曲线细节变化,恢复速率相关系数达到0.618,回归估计标准差低于AG法和D-L法,因此识别精度最优。     

柠檬酸废水处理改造工程实例

采用多级内循环厌氧反应器MIC/上升式厌氧反应器UASB串联工艺处理柠檬酸生产排放的高浓度有机废水,其中厌氧处理段的COD去除率＞94％,整体COD去除率可达98.3％左右.最终排放口出水COD平均值为190 mg/L,pH值为6～9,达到柠檬酸行业废水排放标准.